Phase 3 in Ontario

For those of you who do not know we live in Ontario. Ontario and the rest of Canada can be quite proud in saying that we have successfully flattened the curve. That being said here in Ontario we are still in phase 2 where we can have restaurant patios open but not as of yet bars, indoor dining, gyms, indoor swimming pools, and gatherings of more than ten. There are probably a few others as well that I may have overlooked.

In Ontario today we had 138 new infections. That out of a total of 14 million people who live in Ontario which if you do the math is not a very high percentage. In fact out of all the reporting centers in the province there are only about eight that report any cases at all. There were about 21,000 tests yesterday which works out to about 0.6% positive test results. So what we have been doing has been working.

Everyone is doing a real good job in this hot dry spell that we are having doing the social distancing and wearing the mask. We ate on a patio the other day and the waitress asked for a phone number in case someone might have had it so they can contact trace everyone who was there around the same time. Where I live in Guelph Ontario masks are mandatory when you enter a place of business or use transportation. Everyone is complying with the rules.

The Ontario Medical Officer has been very slow in getting to phase 3. I know they would all like the case count to go to zero but that is just wishful thinking. They have to soon move on to the next phase. Not to be an alarmist but once we open up some more our cases may spike a bit but sooner rather than later they have to get going and dive into the pool.

The shutdown for some of these businesses has brought in zero income. Some takeout businesses for restaurants without patios but hardly enough. It has been since March 13th when the writ came down to lock it down. Yes some admittedly got help when their landlord signed onto the the Canadian Rent Subsidy Program which lowered the rent to 25% of what they had to cover but that was only for 3 months. In other words April May and June. Now July 1st is gone. What about that rent? There was a survey out the past week saying up to 78% small businesses will not be able to make rent.

We drove through downtown Guelph and there was a lot of small businesses just boarded up. Gone.

Restaurants will disappear soon as well. Nail salons ( forgot to mention those ) , gyms, a lot of retail stores will close with head offices now streamlining the ones worth keeping open and closing the others. Malls will be half full.

Now studies show if people are in a closed area like indoor dining the two meter rule will not really matter because studies show airborne droplets can be sent further than the rule because the air circulation can spread the droplets far. Now if diners are sitting for a minimum of an hour they have a more than likely chance of contracting the virus. Bars will be worse. The young crowd will risk it then catch it unknowingly in a lot of cases and spread it to their close contacts. All we can hope for is for every person in Ontario to be careful and just keep doing what we are doing. In South Korea they killed it then the bars opened and voila! Infections spread up again even outside the main city center of Seoul.

But we have to get on with it sooner or later or there will not be many of your favorite restaurants, nail salons, and gyms kicking around. But then my prediction is these places will have started so far behind and now with the added headache , albeit necessary, of enforcing social distancing and buying PPE equipment and sanitizers what is the profit remaining? Will it be worth it?

Look for a lot of small  businesses that have not yet closed because of the government handout keeping them alive like a ventilator to be extinguishing their dreams this summer. It may just not be worth it. Then you have the jobless but that is for another post.

Oh yes and the movie theatres too!